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February 24, 2008
A LATE ATTEMPT AT PREDICTING/DISRUPTING THE OSCARS
This will be a long one (also seen on my Facebook page):
So tonight is the big show where Hollywood gives themselves awards for being wonderful. Absolute dog and pony show, etc. etc. etc., and every year they get it wrong. I have agreed with one Best Picture Winners since 1980: UNFORGIVEN in 1992. Other than that, the pic they picked was not my personal Best Pic of any given year. I could do a whole thing on Alternate Oscars for each year, and maybe I will. In the meantime, you can check this website for a guy who actually wrote a book doing this:
http://filmfanatic.org/reviews/wp-static/AlternateOscars.html
Just for the record, here are my best movies of each year since the new millenium
2000: GLADIATOR won, but CROUCHING TIGER HIDDEN DRAGON should have
2001: A BEAUTIFUL MIND won, but MEMENTO should have
2002: CHICAGO won, but 24 HOUR PARTY PEOPLE should have
2003: RETURN OF THE KING won, but CITY OF GOD should have
2004: MILLION DOLLAR BABY won, but ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND should have
2005: CRASH won, but BROKEN FLOWERS should have
2006: THE DEPARTED won, but CHILDREN OF MEN should have (Normally I would say BRICK, but it was more of a personal favorite than anything else).
That said, this may be the first second year I agree with them in 27 years.
Here's the categories (See an earlier post for the nominees) and here are my predictions and contentions. I'm pretty good at this, by the way; in college I predicted all but one award for the Mississippi State newspaper, and in 2005 I won 75 dollars betting on a combo of CRASH, George Clooney, and Phillip Seymour Hoffman.
Here's my big academy theory. The voters are by nature egalitarians: they want to share the wealth, and they want to see certain people on stage. They don't like to see one movie take home every single award. If they can, they'll give a consolation prize to a movie that won't win Best Picture, usually in the form of Best Screenplay or Best Supporting. I'm often right about this. Case in point: when BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN lost Best Picture, it won Screenplay and Director.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
WHAT WILL WIN: THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY, Ronald Harwood
This was a tricky job. Adapting a book that was written entirely by a guy flickering his eyebrows. I haven't seen it, but this will be this film's token award.
WHAT SHOULD WIN: THERE WILL BE BLOOD, PTA
I disagree that the process of "adaptation" should play a role in this. PTA loosely adapted TWBB, and wrote the best screenplay of the year. The runners up are the Coens, who stuck as close to the original text NO COUNTRY as possible.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WHAT WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: JUNO
This is a classic storybook Oscar moment. Former stripper, single-mom (or something like that) writes an indie hit. This is probably the safest bet of the bunch. And I agree: though I haven't seen LARS AND THE REAL GIRL or THE SAVAGES, I think JUNO's conviction for its characters is enough to overcome the films' flaws.
WHAT WASN'T NOMINATED BUT SHOULD WIN: THE DARJEELING LIMITED
BEST SONG
WHAT WILL AND SHOULD WIN: The song from ONCE
It will be cool to see them play it on stage.
Sadly, I didn't see any of the FOREIGN LANGUAGE films
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WHO WILL WIN: Tilda Swinton, MICHAEL CLAYTON
WHAT SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett, I'M NOT THERE
Blanchett has won the award before, so she won't get it this time. Swinton will win even though she gives what I think is a thoroughly over-the-top performance*. Swinton plays every scene as though she is going to hyperventilate It will be the Academy's way of awarding the film, which will get shut out in every other category. Which is okay, I guess, because I like Swinton, but Blanchett was really remarkable in the movie. And I've saying this as someone who has never really liked her.
MY OTHER NOMINATIONS:
Jennifer Garner, JUNO
Catherine Keener, INTO THE WILD
Hope Davis, THE NINES
Leslie Mann, KNOCKED UP
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WHAT WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN: Javier Bardem
Bardem gave the year's most iconic performance, and it is a role that will sky-rocket him in an elite class of actors. In three years, he will be the equivalent of Russell Crowe. This is going to be close though, because Hal Holbrook is the kind of actor who might get a career achievement award, much like Alan Arkin did last year or James Coburn a few years before. So it could go either way. It's a strong group. I wouldn't be unhappy if Casey Affleck won.
By the way, nobody is really saying this, but I'm not totally sure that Bardem isn't the lead actor in that film.
MY OTHER NOMINEES:
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR
Josh Brolin, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Marcus Carl Franklin, I'M NOT THERE (my personal fave performance, but not as powerful as Bardem)
Paul Dano, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
BEST ACTRESS
WHAT WILL WIN: Julie Christie, AWAY FROM HER
WHAT SHOULD WIN: I don't know
I've only seen one of the performances (Ellen Page), and she will probably lose to the venerable Ms. Christie. The French woman from LA VIE EN ROSE could win as well. And Ellen Page has a shot, but she's young. Even though I haven't seen THE SAVAGES, i bet Laura Linney was great, and I'd love to see her win because I still think YOU CAN COUNT ON ME is the best female performance of the decade.
BEST ACTOR
WHAT WILL AND SHOULD WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
It was the best performance I've seen in a film since . . . I can't remember, probably Nicolas Cage in ADAPTATION. It screams Oscar. George Clooney is the only one with a chance at the upset, but Johnny Depp is the dark horse. Tommy Lee Jones is just being nominated for having a fine year.
OTHER NOMINEES: (Not a very strong year for male leads, if you ask me)
Reece Thompson, ROCKET SCIENCE
Christian Bale, RESCUE DAWN
Adrien Brody, THE DARJEELING LIMITED
Kurt Russell, GRINDHOUSE
BEST DIRECTOR AND BEST PICTURE
WHAT WILL WIN: The Coen's for Best Director and THERE WILL BE BLOOD for Best Picture or vice-versa (probably the listed scenario)
WHAT SHOULD WIN: . . . eh I'm fine with either.
I think BLOOD should sweep the Oscars. It's a masterpiece. But I'm perfectly happy watching the Coen's get some award, any award, that they should have won for FARGO, BARTON FINK, and (probably) MILLERS CROSSING - all the best movies of their respective year.
So I pick one of the above scenarios. Whoever wins Best Director (I Think the Coens Will) will not find their film winning Best Picture. The other possible is that the Coens sweep both awards, cause I could also see PTA getting the screenplay award as a consolation prize and then the Coens taking the top two. I think the voters will want to reward both films, either of which would have won the statue last year. If I'm a betting man, I take BLOOD for Best Pic and the Coens for Best Director. The Academy has been doing this a lot (4 times in the last ten years), most recently when they gave CRASH Best Picture and Ang Lee best director.
MY RUNNERS-UP:
I'M NOT THERE
RESCUE DAWN
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
THE DARJEELING LIMITED
Best Director is kind of a dumb category, so I'll just say PTA deserves it and all the directors of the above films deserve nominations.
That's that! Happy watching!
(Typical question for comments: Shouldn't you be writing your thesis?)
(In case you care, here are last year's Top Ten - In retrospect, I would add BABEL, DREAMGIRLS, and LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA to that top 10 list)
* For the record, I just saw MICHAEL CLAYTON Friday and didn't see what all the fuss was about. To me it was just more lawyer crap. This one seemed to have a high on "ethics" (and was lauded for it; even though the ethics revolved around some kind of crazy things happening/high-tech assassins) but it also was big on "derivative plot points." I liked Tom Wilkinson in it, but overall it just didn't do anything for me. I know there are a lot of MC fans out there and I'd love to hear some arguments.
| By Andytown | 03:13 PM
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